We’ve cleared out of Indonesia, and now our customs agent is saying that immigration will be looking to fine us if we don’t actually go. But we are staying put on the south of of the island Kai Kecil, waiting for the right weather to head across the Arafura Sea to Australia.
The cyclone season varies from year to year. I had expected that by early April we would see weather suitable for the crossing, hoping for the end of the NW monsoon season to give us favourable winds ahead of the SE trade winds that will blow through here during the southern winter. But it is one of those years, and the monsoon trough is lingering and mixing with some jetstreams aloft, creating perfect conditions for cyclones to develop.
The sea temperature here is well over 30॰, and in the bay here at Uf, it is well over 33॰ some days. These hot waters create the evaporation to make an unstable airmass start to convect and circulate. This is borne out in the forecasts we are watching on our satellite internet connection.
There is considerable variation between the three models that I have been regarding as the best; the European, the US and the Australian BOM models. It appears to me that the BOM is actually the best at giving us a likely pattern for the next week out. All of the models are predicting cyclones; the variation is in the timing and the location.
We are lucky to be in such a good location. The bay is safe; well protected from almost all directions, and while we are not allowed to go ashore, the local villagers are bringing food to us, meaning that there is no reason for us to leave the boat. It is a good opportunity to catch up on some boat housekeeping and enjoy a few books.
Here are some photos of locals coming out in their dugout canoes, eager to bring us food.
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